The first test on Bitcoin in the era of high interest rates: Why did gold rise by 32% but fall by 46%?
Global bond yields have climbed to their highest levels since July 2008, before Bitcoin (BTC) was born. Today, this digital asset is trading in such a high borrowing cost environment for the first time, but its market performance has failed to benefit as expected and has instead fallen into a passive position.
This misalignment between the macro background and the core conflict marks that Bitcoin is undergoing an unprecedented stress test since its birth.
Looking back in history, the Bitcoin white paper was released in October 2008, and the first block was mined by Satoshi Nakamoto on January 3, 2009. Notably, this genesis block contains the headline from The Times on January 3, 2009: 'Chancellor considers second bank bailout'. The original intention of Bitcoin was to deal with government fiscal failures.
However, global finances are currently under pressure again, and although yield trends are global, they are not completely synchronized. UK 10-year government bond yields as high as 5.05%, the highest among major markets; Germany yields rise to 3.21%, the highest level in 2011 A new high since the beginning of the year; Japan’s yield also reached 2.88% after decades of near-zero interest rates. Barclays (BCS.US) strategist Patrick Coffey pointed out that the market is undergoing a broader repricing of duration, and the underlying reasons are fiscal realities, continued inflation risks, and certain political uncertainty. Looking at the U.S. market, on January 2, 2009, the 10-year Treasury bond yield was 2.46%, and is currently 4.69%; 30 The annual yieldwas 2.83% in Bitcoin’s first week. On August 13, the U.S. Treasury Department auctioned $25 billion of 10-year Treasury bonds, and the winning bid yield was as high as 5.216%, the highest since 2001. The auction reflected weak market demand, with a subscription ratio of only 2.39 times, below the average of 2.43 times;
